Complexity theory is everywhere and nowhere.

I was at a workshop the other day where systems engineers and 'enterprise architects' were pondering a large cluster of issues about future trends. The subject is not particularly important, because the point I'll make is general.

After a bit of discussion, I suggested that they were dealing with a complex adaptive system, and might benefit from models, simulations, and control theories that are being developed for CAS's. The response was generally negative. "We don't have any training in CAS's." "There's no documentation... standards... definitions... validation... etc."

Clearly, CAS theory is an emergent science. It has none of the trappings of a mature body of theory. What's more, it may never have these things. You may never be able to get a degree as a 'complex systems engineeer'.

I believe that we are actually exploring new territory. We don't know where this will lead. There are enough tantalizing clues, however, that there are universal truths in CAS theory. From such theory might spring guidelines in finding where to look for lever points and other important control strategies.

Those would be the building blocks for a predictive tool. Prediction is the crucible for all new sciences. If a body of theory is not predictive, and has no chance of becoming predictive, then its status as a science is questionable. The road to creating a testable theory is long and difficult. But, I believe that the journey is worth it--mostly because complex systems are both important and ubiquitous.

Well, I've gone and launched a blog on complexity.

Following a terrific presentation by INCOSE on complexity and systems engineering, I've decided to create a web-space where I can publish my ramblings about complex adaptive systems (CAS's).

Complex adaptive sytems are best described by what they are not. The opposite of CAS's are architected or designed systems. I'm a systems engineer. Much has been written and spoken about designed systems. For these traditional systems, we know how to define requirements, establish standards, separate the design process into parts, and create this thing from sheer cloth. (Or steel, or digits--you get the pic). But, many--perhaps most--systems we deal with on a daily basis had no requirements document, no standards committee, and no validation process. They just grew.

'So what?', you might ask. Well, since CAS's make up so much of our daily lives, wouldn't it be nice to have a plan when they break? For when they stop delivering output that we depended on? How about for predicting when and how often they will break?

That's where I come in: I carry an agent-based model. Or some other tool of CAS analysis. In short, I work (academically) at the frontier of a whole new systems science. And, hopefully, I'll be able to send dispaches from the front lines as we all explore this brave, new world.

Redbeard