Complexity Demonstrated

My first step in developing a research topic is to recreate one of the classic works of the field. In this case, I need to reproduce the results of an agent-based model of agents playing prisoners dilemma with one another on a two-dimensional grid. The article by Nowak and May was published in 1992:

Nowak, Martin A., and Robert M. May. "Evolutionary games and spatial chaos". Nature 359 (29 October 1992), p. 826-829.

I have successfully re-done their model in NetLogo. Compare my image of interlaced networks of defectors with their figure 1a.

This is the result of setting b = 1.799. The red regions are those agents who chose to defect. Blue represents those agents choosing to cooperate (with other agents), and the green and yellow patches are those agents that are switching sides every turn.

In 92 this was an interesting game theory agent-based model. But, today we only need to change "defect" to "support coaltion" and "cooperate" to "join insurgency" and we have an interesting model of the game theory of insurgency. If we change the payoff for 'defecting', we get very different outcomes. This illustration was taken just before one of those 'tipping points'. Increasing the reward to b = 1.800 will send the model into complete complex behavior. It won't be in chaos -- there will still be patches and strutuctures -- but it certainly won't be stable, either.

My Plans (and Conference List for 2007)

My Way Ahead: Research and Exploration

I'm back from completing preparations for my dissertation. My exams are complete, the coursework is complete, and I' m beginning work on a dissertation proposal.

My topic is validation of agent-based models. In particular, I'm going to examine the impact of different agent-activation schemes on the outcomes (and the subsequent decision recommendations) for agent-based models. I'm surprised that there is not much written on this subject, as ABMs are becoming more and more prominent throughout the world of M&S and complexity theory.

At the beginning, I need to include a survey of the literature. Much of the literature occurs in conjunction with conferences. What I've found is that there are a gigantic number and variety of conferences on the general topic of complex adaptive systems and agent-based models. Many of them have no connections with one another. So, the first step (or, I guess I'm back to step 0.5), is to actually list these conferences. Here is a partial list, just for this fall:

I will attend the European Social Simulation Association's conference in Toulouse next week (Sep 10 - 14, 2007).

There is also the Central and Eastern European Conference on Multi-agent Systems later in Sept 07.

From October 2 - 5 in Dresden, there's the European Conference on Complex Systems.

On October 22-24 there will be the 2007 Engineering Societies in the Agent World (ESAW) conference.

October 28 - Nov 2, in Quincy, MA (USA), there will be the International Conference on Complex Systems (ICCS2007).

From 1-3 November the European Association for Evolutionary Political Economy will meet in Portugal.

On November 12-16, 2007, Agents 2007 will convene at Northwestern Unversity in Evanston (near Chicago), IL. I'll be there.

On Nov 21-23 the Pacific Rim International Workshop on Multi-Agents will be held in Bangkok. (Maybe next year...)

I'll also be at the December 9-12 Winter Simulation Conference, mostly because it's here in Washington, DC.

From Dec 17-19 in Pune, India, the 3^rd Indian International Conference on Artificial Intelligence will host a multi-agent systems workshop.

I plan to add many, many more to this list. Watch this space.